Written by Sinan Ciddi
Such an alliance, the report warns, could accelerate the emergence of a serious Syrian-Turkish threat to Israel. The question is no longer whether Erdogan will act, but what the United States and its allies will do to prevent the catastrophe. Time to anticipate the worst is running out…
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making no effort to hide his grand regional ambitions. In a bold statement following the first meeting of the Turkish government this year, Erdogan made it clear that he intends to target the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
His message to Washington was very clear: “A new era has begun in Syria… Turkey has shown what kind of determination it has to protect its survival and security. If the need arises again, we can land there suddenly one night.
The circle is tightening for the separatist organization and its branches in Syria. As a government and alliance, we will achieve our goal of a Turkey free of terrorism one way or another. Of course, we hope this happens in a safe way. If this path is blocked and blown up, then we will not hesitate to strike with the iron fist of the state!”
As the Biden administration nears the end of its term, Erdogan is laying the groundwork for a military attack to neutralize the Kurdish-dominated SDF. Recent clashes between the SDF and Turkey-backed militias operating under the flag of the “Syrian National Army” underline Erdogan’s determination.
The SDF, globally recognized for its leading role in combating the Islamic State (ISIS), now faces an existential threat as it struggles to defend its autonomous zone in northern Syria.
For Syrian Kurds and other communities opposing jihadist rule, Erdogan’s ambitions signal a bleak future. The interim government in Syria, dominated by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), raises additional concerns. Despite attempts to present a different image, HTS has historical ties to extremist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Its leaders, now dressed in Western-style suits and promising moderate governance, cannot hide their true intentions.
Many HTS officials have a dark past. For instance, the interim Minister of Justice is accused of overseeing public executions of Syrian women. Anas Khattab, who is on the UN’s blacklist for terrorists and was previously recruited by the Turkish intelligence service MIT, was appointed as the interim head of Syria’s secret service.
Khattab once had ties to the Al-Nusra Front, which was in turn connected to ISIS. The interim head of Syrian Women’s Affairs declared that she would not “allow space for those who disagree with my views on women’s issues.”
Similarly, many other interim cabinet officials have known links to Al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, and HTS. Many members of the interim government cabinet are believed to hold dual Syrian-Turkish citizenship, including the Foreign Minister.
Meanwhile, HTS leadership has stated that Syria’s interim government will operate under Islamic law and postpone the first democratic elections for up to four years. Such a delay raises serious doubts about their commitment to representative governance.
European leaders do not trust HTS’s claims of moderate behavior. During a visit to Syria, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized the group and stated that Germany has no intention of “funding Islamic structures.” The refusal of HTS leader Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani to shake the German minister’s hand only reinforced this distrust.
The New Syrian Crisis
As Biden administration officials quietly update their resumes, Washington must face the unpleasant truth: while Turkey-backed jihadists may have helped topple Assad’s regime, they are paving the way for another authoritarian and extremist government.
Erdogan’s motives for the attack go beyond ideology. Ankara aims to establish a stable regime in Damascus, one that aligns with its strategic interests. Turkey is prepared to offer military assistance, training, and support for rebuilding the country, along with lucrative contracts for Turkish firms.
Furthermore, Erdogan wants HTS to help eliminate the Kurdish SDF, reinforcing the image of a tough stance against terrorism domestically. Currently, Erdogan is amassing significant troops along Turkey’s border with Syria. Turkish air support has already aided the Syrian National Army, and a full-scale military incursion seems inevitable. If Washington fails to act decisively, it must prepare to face the severe consequences of Erdogan’s unchecked ambitions.
Israel is also closely monitoring Ankara’s behavior. A recent report by Israel’s Nagel Commission warns of the dangers posed by stronger ties between Turkey and a Syrian government led by jihadists.
Such an alliance, the report warns, could accelerate the emergence of a serious Syrian-Turkish threat to Israel. The question is no longer whether Erdogan will act, but what the United States and its allies will do to prevent the catastrophe. Time to anticipate the worst is running out.
Note: Sinan Ciddi is a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an expert on Turkish politics. He is also an associate professor of National Security Studies at the Marine Corps University (MCU), USA.
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